Shook the Spot

Apropos my comment last month on "how fucked the newspaper business is and how nobody's going to be reading the Journal in print sooner than we care to think," a column today in Advertising Age is entitled, "Imagining the Day When the WSJ Print Edition Folds" . . .

I don't have enough insight into The Journal's economics to say when (or,
with confidence, whether) the day will come when a print-to-digital conversion
is economically feasible. Could be two years, could be 10. But most newspapers
are faced with roughly the same dilemma: Print dollars are flat or down but
still account for the bulk of revenue and profits. Digital is growing by double-
or triple-digits, but off a relatively small base, and online advertising isn't
valued as highly as print. Even those who believe a digital takeover is
inevitable don't want to admit it because it puts their existing revenue streams
at risk too soon, before they've built the ark that will carry them safely to a
new business model.

From that point of view, it seems batty to suggest that Dow Jones --
despite its early aggressiveness and success on the web -- should consider
folding a 117-year-old print daily that has more than 2 million paid
subscribers. But from a long-term, brand-centric perspective, it would be
negligent for the committee not to crunch the numbers to determine when and if
digital delivery will surpass the efficiencies of printing (at 17 U.S. plants)
and distributing a paper product. The web has content as well as cost
advantages, being a better tool for tracking stocks and breaking news.

Here's a thought: Save every copy of every newspaper your read starting today, so when they all go online and your print media job is axed in 2012, you can supplement your income selling vintage copies of the Times, Journal, et al. on eBay.